Logistics & 3PL 8 min read Denmark

Contract or spot: how to split ocean volume this year

A simple allocation framework that protects you from rate spikes without locking in dead space.

A

Anders Holm

Freight Manager · Nordbase Supply · August 10, 2026

Contract everything and you pay for space you never use in a soft quarter. Spot everything and one Red Sea headline wipes out your season.

Allocate contract volume against your P30 demand — the level you hit in 30% of weeks, not your forecast. That floor is the volume you are genuinely confident about.

Cover the next band on spot, and reserve the top 10% for air or expedited LCL. Reprice the split quarterly against actuals rather than annually against hope.

Ask for a minimum quantity commitment with a rolling quarterly true-up. Carriers will trade flexibility for visibility more often than sellers assume.

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